Author: Dr James Jeffs, Principal Technology Analyst at IDTechEx
Autonomous driving technologies have seemingly been on the horizon for the last decade, maybe more. But, IDTechEx’s report on the topic, “Autonomous Vehicles Market 2025-2045: Robotaxis, Autonomous Cars, Sensors “, shows that autonomous driving technologies have arrived and are changing the automotive industry forever.
The market research report from IDTechEx highlights how quickly the industry has started moving since 2020. Over the past four years, level 3 technologies have been certified for consumer use on public roads, hands-off/eyes-on driving has solidified as a market segment, and commercial driverless robotaxi services have become available to the public.
Number of models available with hands-off, eyes-on driving technologies. Source: IDTechEx
Level 3 is here, but growing slower than expected
Although level 3 technologies have arrived and have technically been available since 2021, their growth has been slow.
Honda was the first to reach this milestone, certifying hands-off, eyes-off driving in specific scenarios on the Legend Ex in 2021. However, saying that its availability was somewhat limited would be an understatement; one hundred vehicles were available to lease directly from Honda in Japan only.
It was Mercedes in 2022 who was next with this accomplishment, certifying the Drive-Pilot system on the S-Class and EQS for level 3 use in Germany. This was later followed by certification in Nevada and California in 2023. BMW was quick to follow, certifying its rival 7 Series for level 3 use in Germany in early 2024.
Tesla is also hoping to join the club of level 3 deployments soon, announcing that hands-off, eyes-off driving is coming for owners in Texas and California at some point in 2025.
That’s it. A handful of cars on the market, in a handful of locations, and those that are here already still have tight limitations on how and when the technology is used. More releases are on the horizon, with Mobileye securing several design wins for its hands-off, eyes-off Chauffeur product. But even when these technologies come to market, there is no guarantee OEMs and governing bodies will be happy to certify their use more widely across Europe, the US, China, or anywhere else. IDTechEx’s report, “Autonomous Vehicles Market 2025-2045: Robotaxis, Autonomous Cars, Sensors “, goes into detail on why OEMs might be hesitant, the legislative progress in different regions, and how this creates an environment for the success of level 2+ technologies.
Level 2+ technologies are taking off
Level 2+ technologies allow the driver to take their hands off the wheel while keeping their eyes on the road. It is the eyes-on part that is a big differentiator and what makes level 2+ so much easier to deploy than level 3 technologies. With the driver keeping their eyes on the road, they are always responsible and liable for the vehicle. Whereas, if a level 3 vehicle is operating in eyes-off mode, then it is the OEM that becomes responsible, and they must provide a ten-second warning for the driver to regain control if the system encounters an error.
Keeping the driver responsible for the vehicle is far more comfortable for the OEM, and they do not need the same confidence level in the vehicle’s autonomous abilities. It also means they are happy for the vehicles to be used up to full highway speeds, as opposed to the 60kph limit currently in effect for Mercedes and BMW in Germany, although Mercedes is planning to increase this soon.
Legislators also appear to be happier with level 2+. In North America, General Motors’s Super Cruise system is available across the US and Canada, while Ford’s BlueCruise is also available across Europe.
From a vehicle hardware perspective, the technology on the level 2+ cars is very similar to level 3 cars. In fact, BMW has both a level 3 and level 2+ product, with the main difference in the sensor suite being the presence of a LiDAR on the level 3 car. IDTechEx’s report shows that a typical sensor suite for a level 2+ system uses five radars and eight cameras, with LiDAR mostly used on level 3 vehicles in the West but is much more common in China. The report also finds that higher-level vehicles use significantly more sensors, with some level 4 robotaxis using up to 40 individual perception sensors.
Robotaxis in their “hockey stick” moment
Robotaxis are now a reality in several cities across the US and China, with the industry set to keep growing.
In the US, Waymo is the one to watch. It has established deployments in Phoenix, San Francisco, and Los Angeles. It has been growing its operational footprint in each of these cities. And it is expanding to Austin and Atlanta next; that’s two new states for this trail-braking company.
In China, several companies are making significant strides, including Baidu’s Apollo Go, AutoX, and WeRide. Like in the US, these companies are in the process of spreading to new cities. But it was Baidu who stole the headlines earlier in 2024. It is already commercial in several cities, but in 2024, it ramped up its presence in Wuhan. Here, it operates over a total area of 1,200 square miles with a fleet of 500 vehicles. However, what got people’s attention was its aggressive pricing, being around 80% cheaper than human-driven taxis, with locals feeling that it was threatening driver’s livelihoods.
Across the US and China, IDTechEx is expecting more cities to come online each year, as well as existing deployments to grow. For example, San Francisco started out very small before growing to cover the entire city, and now, in 2024, it has started spreading down the peninsula and incorporates Daly City. IDTechEx expects this service to grow, extending to Silicon Valley and beyond over the coming years.
With expanding operational areas, a growing number of cities, and more vehicles in each location, IDTechEx thinks that 2024 and the next few years will be remembered as the hockey stick moment for robotaxis and autonomous driving.
IDTechEx’s report, “Autonomous Vehicles Market 2025-2045: Robotaxis, Autonomous Cars, Sensors “, provides a detailed analysis of the consumer autonomous driving market, robotaxis, and their services, trends in enabling technologies such as cameras, radars, and LiDARs, and is complete with 20-year granular forecasts.
For more information, free downloadable sample slides, and IDTechEx’s autonomous vehicles market forecast, please visit www.IDTechEx.com/AutonomousCars
For the full portfolio of autonomy market research available from IDTechEx, please see www.IDTechEx.com/Research/Autonomy.
Upcoming free-to-attend webinar
Autonomous Vehicles: Why Level 2+ Will Be Bigger Than Level 3, for Now
Dr James Jeffs, Principal Technology Analyst at IDTechEx and author of this article, will be presenting a free-to-attend webinar on the topic on Tuesday 26 November 2024 – Autonomous Vehicles: Why Level 2+ Will Be Bigger Than Level 3, for Now.
This IDTechEx webinar will talk about some of the limitations of level 2+ and level 3 technologies and explains the industry is state today. The webinar will cover:
- What the difference between level 2+ and level 3 is, and what are the major hurdles for each
- What vehicles currently have level 3 systems and where they can be used
- What OEMs have level 2+ systems and where they can be used
- IDTechEx's market outlook and autonomous cars forecast
We will be holding exactly the same webinar three times in one day. Please click here to register for the session most convenient for you.
If you are unable to make the date, please register anyway to receive the links to the on-demand recording (available for a limited time) and webinar slides as soon as they are available.
